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Cowen analyst Doug Creutz has some new rough estimates based on Nintendo’s success and Sony’s struggle during last year’s holiday season:

• Sony will sell about 4 million PS3s in 2009, down from previous projections of 6.25 million units sold. Fewer PS3 sales in 2010 too, now projecting 4.5 million units sold vs 6.5 million previously.
• Wii picks up the slack: 8 million consoles to be sold in 2009 vs 6 million previous. More in 2010 too: 6 million vs old estimates of 4 million.
• Little change to Microsoft’s Xbox 360: Estimates fairly steady, Doug sees 4.25 million this year, and another 4 million in 2010.

The interesting thing is Doug sees total console sales fairly flat — it’s just Nintendo is grabbing more customers that otherwise would have been Sony’s.

Is Sony sure they aren’t in competition with Nintendo?

Tags: PlayStation 3, PS3, Sales, Sony, Wii

VentureBeat has a great article which compares the sales of the Wii and PlayStation 3 to the PlayStation 2 and Nintendo GameCube, respectively.

• “In just over two years, the Wii outsold the PS2’s comparable initial sales by 10 percent, according to the NPD. That is, in the first 26 months of the Wii, Nintendo sold 17.5 million Wiis while Sony sold 15.9 million PS2s in the U.S. in the first 26 months of sales.
• By comparison, the PlayStation 3 sold 6.79 million units in the U.S. during the same initial 26-month period, compared to 6.75 million GameCubes, which finished a distant third last generation and forced Nintendo to rethink how it sold video games.
• Microsoft, for its part, sold 9.2 million Xbox 360s in the U.S. in its first 26 months, trailing Nintendo in a faraway second by a margin of 2 to 1 — the same position the company held last generation.”

That is, in the first 26 months of the Wii, Nintendo sold 17.5 million Wiis while Sony sold 15.9 million PS2s in the U.S. in the first 26 months of sales. If the sales pattern holds, we expect Nintendo to sell 55 million Wiis in America by 2014 and 154 million units worldwide.

Tags: GameCube, Microsoft, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, PS2, PS3, Sales, Sony, Wii, Xbox 360